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How the boundary review may affect Labour BAME MPs

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With the release of the boundary review yesterday, we've been looking at how the changes could potentially affect Labour BAME MPs.

The conclusion? Most of the 28 MPs are safe, with their constituency staying or their former seat forming a new seat without any other Labour MPs competing for the same area. 

A few BAME MPs are worth keeping an eye on. Chuka Umunna looks set to be selected for the new Streatham and Mitcham seat. However, his neighbour Siobhan McDonagh does not pass the 40% threshold to be automatically selected for a new seat. Although she is more likely to run for the new seat of Merton and Wimbledon Central, there is an outside chance she might run against Chuka. 

Theoretically, Virendra Sharma (Ealing Southall) and Seema Maholtra (Feltham and Heston) could run against each other for the new seat of Southall and Heston. However, it's far more likely for Seema to run for Feltham and Hounslow. 

There are however two BAME MPs that will have to fight for re-selection. Chi Onwurah (Newcastle upon Tyne Central) and Catherine McKinnell (Newcastle upon Tyne North West) will have to fight for the new seat of New Castle upon Tyne North West with both MPs passing the 40% threshold. 

Diane Abbott's seat of Hackney North and Stoke Newington will be split between the new constituency Finsbury Park & Stoke Newington and Hackney Central. While there's much hay about Diane Abbott going against Jeremy Corbyn for Finsbury Park & Stoke Newington, Diane doesn't meet the 40% threshold to automatically be selected for the seat.

Diane is far more likely to go for Hackney Central where she meets the criteria for re-selection. However, she'll be likely to run against Meg Hillier, the current Labour MP for Hackney South and Shoreditch.

For the full list of BAME Labour MPs and how the boundary changes could potentially affect them, scroll down. 

How the re-selection process works for Labour MPs

So how does the system work? Appendix 3 of the Labour Rulebook explains it all, but here's a rough summary. 

When more than 40% of people in an MP's old constituency transfer to a new seat, that MP gets reselected automatically in a trigger ballot.

That means Labour members in these areas won't get a vote to unseat their MP - but there's a catch.

If two Labour MPs have a 40% claim on a seat, which happens in several cases, they can both stand against each other in a vote by their new Constituency Labour Party (CLP)

There will be three options on the ballot - MP 1, MP 2, and an option to reject them both and have an open contest.

But the open contest must get 50% or more to pass. So if MP 1 gets 41%, and an open contest gets 45%, MP 1 will still get selected.

If an MP doesn't have a 40% claim on any seat, they are not automatically eligible. They'll have to apply to Labour's NEC for a legitimate claim on another seat or start their careers again.

Makes sense? Right, here are the list of BAME Labour MPs:

Lisa Nandy - Wigan

The seat of Wigan is unchanged from the boundary review.

Keith Vaz - Leicester East

The seat of Leicester East is unchanged from the boundary review.

Thangam Debonnaire - Bristol West

The seat of Bristol West loses the City of Bristol ward of Easton. Thanham Debonnaire passes the 40% threshold for selection with no other Labour MPs competing for selection.  

Kate Osamor - Edmonton

The seat of Edmonton gains the ward of Palmers Green from the current Enfield, Southgate constituency. Kate Osamor passes the 40% threshold for selection with no other Labour MPs competing for selection.

Rosena Allin-Khan - Tooting

The seat of Tooting gains the Merton borough ward of Graveney, (fun fact: there's an existing ward of Graveney in Tooting).  Rosena Allin-Khan passes the 40% threshold for selection with no other Labour MPs competing for selection

Mark Hendrick - Preston

The seat of Preston gains the other five wards in Preston. Mark Hendrick passes the 40% threshold for selection with no other Labour MPs competing for selection. 

David Lammy - Tottenham

The seat of Tottenham gains Stroud Green Ward. David Lammy passes the 40% threshold for selection with no other Labour MPs competing for selection.

Imran Hussain - Bradford East

Bradford East gains the City of Bradford ward of Manningham. Imran Hussain passes the 40% threshold for selection with no other Labour MPs competing for selection.

Naz Shah - Bradford West

Bradford West loses the City of Bradford ward of Manningham and gains the City of Bradford wards of Great Horton and Queensbury. Naz Shah passes the 40% threshold for selection with no other Labour MPs competing for selection.

Clive Lewis - Norwich South

Norwich South loses the City of Norwich ward of Wensum and gains the South Norfolk wards of Cringleford and Old Costessey. Clive Lewis passes the 40% threshold for selection with no other Labour MPs competing for selection.

Valerie Vaz - Walsall South

Walsall South will disappear with six of its wards going into a new constituency called Walsall Central and gain three wards from Walsall North constituency. Valerie Vaz passes the 40% threshold for selection with no other Labour MPs competing for selection.

Khalid Mahmood - Birmingham Perry Barr

Birmingham Perry Barr loses Oscott ward and gains the Birmingham city ward of Aston and the Sandwell borough ward of Newton. Khalid Mahmood passes the 40% threshold for selection with no other Labour MPs competing for selection.

Shabana Mahmood - Birmingham Ladywood

Birmingham Ladywood loses Aston ward and gains the Birmingham city ward of Tyburn and the Sandwell borough ward of Soho, and Victoria. Shabana Mahmood passes the 40% threshold for selection with no other Labour MPs competing for selection

Dawn Butler - Brent Central

Brent Central will disappear with eight of its wards going into a new constituency called Willesdon along with the Hammersmith borough wards of College Park and Old Oak, and Brondesbury Park. Dawn Butler passes the 40% threshold for selection for the new seat, with no other Labour MPs competing for selection.

Yasmin Qureshi - Bolton South East

Bolton South East will disappear with five of its wards going into a new constituency called Farnworth along with three wards from Bolton South East and Bury South constituencies. Yasmin Qureshi passes the 40% threshold for selections for the new seat, with no other Labour MPs competing for selection.

Tulip Siddiq - Hampstead and Kilburn

Hampstead and Kilburn will disappear with seven of its wards going into a new constituency called Hampstead and Golders Green along with the two wards from Finchley and Golders Green and Highgate ward from Holborn and St Pancras. Tulip Siddiq passes the 40% threshold for selection for the new seat, with no other Labour MPs competing for selection.

Rupa Huq - Ealing Central and Acton

Ealing Central and Acton will disappear with six of its wards going into a new constituency called Ealing Central and Shepherd's Bush along with three wards from the current Hammersmith constituency. Rupa Huq passes the 40% threshold for selection for the new seat with no other Labour MPs competing for selection.

Chuka Umunna - Streatham

Streatham will disappear with four of its wards going into a new constituency called Streatham and Mitcham along with three wards from the current Mitcham and Morden constituency and Norbury ward from Croydon North constituency. Chuka Umunna passes the 40% threshold for selection for the new seat, with 49% of the previous seat moving to the new seat.

However, neighbouring MP Siobhain McDonagh will lose the seat of Mitcham and Morden and does not pass the 40% threshold to automatically be selected for a new seat. She is more likely to run for the new seat of Merton and Wimbledon Central, but there is an outside possibility she could run against Chuka for the new Streatham and Mitcham seat.

Virendra Sharma - Ealing Southall

Ealing, Southall will disappear with four of its wards going into a new constituency called Southall and Heston along with four wards from Felton and Heston constituency. Virendra Sharma passes the 40% threshold for selection for the new seat with 57.7% of the previous seat moving to the new seat.

Potentially, Seema Maholtra could run against Virenda for Southall and Heston. However, Seema also passes the 40% threshold for the new seat of Feltham and Hounslow and is far more likely to run and win selection in that seat.

Seema Maholtra - Feltham and Heston

Feltham and Heston will disappear with six of its wards going into a new constituency called Feltham and Hounslow, along with three wards from the current Brentford and Isleworth constituency. Seema Maholtra passes the 40% threshold for selection for the new seat.

Chi Onwurah - Newcastle upon Tyne Central

Newcastle upon Tyne Central will disappear with four of its wards going into a new constituency called Newcastle upon Tyne North West, along with five wards from the Newcastle upon Tyne North constituency and Ponteland East and Stannington ward. Chi Onwurah passes the 40% threshold for selection for the new seat with 53.8% of the previous seat moving to the new seat.

However, Newcastle upon Tyne North constituency will also disappear with its Catherine McKinnell also passing the threshold for the new seat of Newcastle upon Tyne North West (57.5%). Unless there's an agreement between the two of them, there will be a straight contest between the two of them. 

Diane Abbott - Hackney North and Stoke Newington

Hackney North and Stoke Newington will disappear with the wards being split between the new constituencies of Finsbury Park and Stoke Newington, and Hackney Central. Diane Abbot does not meet the threshold to automatically be on the selection process for Finsbury Park & Stoke Newington (37.7%) so is unlikely to run against the other Labour candidate for that seat: Jeremy Corbyn.

However, Diane does meet the threshold to run for automatic selection in Hackney Central (68.6%). However, she will likely be running against Meg Hillier, the current Labour MP for Hackney South and Shoreditch

 

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